![]() ![]() ![]() The 500-hPa geopotential height (shading in gpm) and MSLP (contours in hPa) from the analysis from (a) 0000 UTC 15 Jun to (h) 0000 UTC. For these sensitivity patterns, the block (which is represented by the metric) could be downstream of these signals. The gray isolines show the ensemble mean of the corresponding state variables. The colored areas show the sensitivities (blue for negative and red for positive sensitivities). Schematic illustrating how the metric changes depend on changes in Z500 and IVT. Purple boxes in (c),(f),(i) mark the areas that were used to calculate the metrics for the ESA approach. The 5600 gpm isolines of all ensemble members (black contours), 5600 gpm isoline of ensemble mean (gray contour), and 500-hPa geopotential height (shading in gpm) from the forecasts initialized at (a)–(c) 1200 UTC 14 Jun (capturing the onset phase of the block), (d)–(f) 1200 UTC 26 Jul (capturing the mature stage), and (g)–(i) 1200 UTC (capturing the decay phase).
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